Optimism on Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Marathon Races

Michael Greenstone has written an excellent piece about how climate change is likely to affect marathon races and the runners.  While the headline hints at "doom and gloom", the real meat of the article is highly optimistic about our ability to adapt to this outdoor stress.    The piece has a cliched paragraph listing the litany of challenges we will face but the historical record highlights that the death rate from disasters is declining quickly over time and that induced innovation will step up to address several of the challenges that climate change will pose. 

Let's be clear, this is the Julian Simon vs. Paul Ehlich debate all over again.  Economists, are you with Simon or not?  My 2010 Climatopolis book anticipated these themes.  In late 2016, I sketched my evolving thinking in this PERC piece.  

Back, to Dr. Greenstone;


Here is a direct optimistic quote:

Marathons will be no exception. The organizers of the New York race will probably not want their event to be one where it is difficult, or perhaps even impossible, for people to set their personal best or to lower the world record. So they may want to adapt by moving the marathon to later in the year.

At the same time, runners may switch from the New York City Marathon to others held in cooler climates to find the perfect temperature at just the right time of year. Could a Montreal Marathon be among the world’s most prestigious by 2050?

Athletic equipment companies will surely develop new technologies to aid adaptation as well. For runners, the breathable mesh and cooling towels of today could easily be traded in for shirts with built-in air-conditioners. Seem far-fetched? They already exist. Indeed, I was one of the authors of a recent study of just how powerful a role technology can play in helping people adapt to warmer temperatures. For example, the rise of air-conditioning has reduced the mortality consequences of extremely hot days in the United States by more than 70 percent since 1960.

Marathons and marathon runners appear likely to be able to adapt to climate change with relative ease through changes in when, where and how.