Pages

Monday, February 16, 2015

How Will Miami Adapt to Sea Level Rise?

Miami will adapt to sea level rise by anticipating the challenge.  Such a challenge creates opportunities for the next generation of architects.  Julian Simon would salute young architects such as Jorge Rodriguez who is quoted here ;

Jorge Rodriguez, a graduate architecture student who helped design the exhibit’s layout, said “Miami 2100” has gained a lot of attention for sea level rise in the community, but has been met with some skepticism about the scientific proof behind it.  “We’re not providing proof this is going to happen,” said Rodriguez, “but we are prepared.”

So, the real debate over climate change adaptation concerns our ability to form rational forecasts of the future and to have the resources to take action.  

Rational Forecasting:   The behavioral economics revolution claims that nobody forms "rational expectations" of the future. This is an exaggeration.  In truth, we are a mixture of types of people and there certainly are some individuals who form "backwards expectations" or have myopic expectations of the future. It is an empirical question to measure whether they are 10%, 50% or 80% of the population.   Even if there are Homer Simpsons and Climate change deniers among us; the insurance industry and land use zoning regulation will direct these guys (perhaps against their wishes) to higher ground.

The Poor  --- Their existence creates an imperative to embrace Heckman's agenda for investing in young children to reduce the next generation's poverty. Economic growth and skill formation are our best tool for adapting to climate change.