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Thursday, December 12, 2013

Hoarding Cabbage as an Adaptation Tool for Eating During Cold Chinese Winters

Given how much time I spend on airplanes, I have had the opportunity to watch the James Bond movie Skyfall at least nine times.  One of the lines in this movie is something like; "Sometimes the old ways are best."   The NY Times reports today that Beijing's senior citizens still hoard cabbage this time of year to raise the probability that they will not starve in winter.  A recent literature in economics has examined how one's experience when young shapes you at older ages. People who grew up during the Great Depression save more.  People who were teens in 1968 at Woodstock are more likely to be liberal greens now.  In the case of China, people who were 15-35  in 1965 during Mao's "free market" era are now 65 to 85.  If you anticipate that there could be shortages of food, then urbanites have strong incentives (like a squirrel) to bury some of it to eat in the future.  The young people in Beijing must find this funny because they have grown up when free markets were open and this guarantees access to food.  

To an economist, the interesting point is "rational expectations and investment".  Anticipating future trouble, self interested individuals take actions to self insure so that they do not starve.  In Climatopolis, I gave an example of hoarding dried fruit to make the same point.  Such dried fruit can last for 2 years and this insures the purchaser against the risk of having no fruit to eat if climate change impacts agricultural output.  Despite my wisdom, this reviewer in the LA Times didn't get the point.  The seniors in Beijing do and this is how we adapt to  Mao's past agricultural policies and to climate change.