The Page 99 Test

Marshal Zeringue has created a great website for people who like books. He approaches authors of new books and encourages them to discuss their book's page 99. This random sampling design was good for me and Dora. Page 99 of our Heroes and Cowards is actually interesting. It displays a bar chart of the predicted desertion probabilities for 5 different soldiers. Based on the biography of each of these soldiers, we explain why we believe they differed so sharply with respect to their willingness to sacrifice for the common good. See The page 99 test . Recall that the U.S Civil War was deadly. If your sole goal was to survive, you should have deserted. One of our puzzles is why were desertion rates so low? Why did only 9% of white Union Army soldiers desert?