The City of Baltimore has one of the highest murder rates in the United States. The murder rate has remained high since the Freddie Gray riots in April 2015. Could a sharp reduction in the city's murder rate now take place as a silver lining of the social distancing induced by fear of the Coronavirus?
Here is my logic. Fear of the Coronavirus nudges people to not interact at close range. As we spread out and crowds disperse, fewer violent face to face social interactions will take place. Thus, fewer murders will take place in the short run.
Could a short run reduction in violence feed on itself through a path dependence effect? In New York City, Mike Bloomberg's policies reduced crime. Bill De Blasio has relaxed many of these stringent policing policies but crime has remained low. One story that is out there is that Bloomberg's policies changed the social norm and the time of peace has persisted under Mayor De Blasio's time even though the "stick" incentives to deter crime have ended in New York City.
So, could the Coronavirus cause peace in Baltimore and then peace feeds on peace?
I recognize that this logic is less likely to hold if most murders are related to the drug business in eliminating rivals and privatizing the commons (i.e street corners where drugs are sold).