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Wednesday, May 31, 2017

Some Peach Economics

The NY Times reports that Georgia has suffered a double weather shock (heat and then frost) that has knocked out almost 75% of the state's peach production.   The piece then demonstrates the power of UCLA Price Theory by claiming that the state's producers will not ship peaches to the North this year so shoppers in Georgia will find good peaches.  Past UCLA research argued that since high and low quality products have the same shipping costs that it makes sense to export your best stuff because the marginal profit is higher from doing so (see Alchian and Allen).

Now, for some climate change adaptation optimism. The NY Times goes on to say that since California has had a good year producing peaches that U.S consumers won't suffer because of the Georgia bad crop.  So, note the spatial diversification argument that I have made in this blog many times before. The NY Times (since it is allergic to optimism?) then goes on to claim that California peaches and Georgia peaches are not close substitutes.  I don't know if I believe this but this substitution parameter is crucial here for judging whether consumers are significantly hurt (i.e lower consumer surplus) from a location specific freeze.