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Tuesday, December 27, 2016

The Behavioral Economics of Propaganda

The NY Times has published a thoughtful book review of a book written by a Yale Professor.  Let me point out one direct quote that contradicts most economics training:

“Propaganda is characteristically part of the mechanism,” he writes, “by which people become deceived about how best to realize their goals, and hence deceived from seeing what is in their own best interests.” This is achieved by various time-tested means — by appealing to the emotions in such a way that rational debate is sidelined or short-circuited; by promoting an insider/outsider dynamic that pollutes the broader conversation with negative stereotypes of out-of-favor groups; and by eroding community standards of “reasonableness” that depend on “norms of mutual respect and mutual accountability.”

This quote hints that there is a danger to free speech.  Note that the word "pollute" is explicitly mentioned and to an economist such a negative externality usually needs to be corrected through the introduction of a tax.

An interesting question is why is the supply of propaganda rising now?  Is it because Facebook has made the spread of information too cheap?  At Columbia University, I had a colleague (I"ll give you a hint; he runs long races) who argued that it should cost a penny to send an email.  This would have reduced the supply of spam!

Of course, the NY Times wants to discuss President Trump here but let's think a pinch more deeply.

"People become deceived about how best to realize their goals."  I wonder how Becker and Stigler would respond to this.  Note that the author does not disaggregate the data.  Are Ivy League graduates as responsive to propaganda as high school graduates?  Who is "at risk" to have their views warped by a  charismatic leader barking at them?  Go read Benjamin and Shapiro's "Who is Behavioral?"

If the NY Times is aware that this dynamic is playing out, how will it "deprogram" the "Ideologically infected"? How "Infected" are the infected?  Will they wake up and come "to their senses" or only when it is too late?

Recall the Star Trek where Spock is infected by the spores, he eventually snaps out of it but Kirk does have to rough him up.  I am half kidding.