1. In 2015, I co-authored a paper about the consequences of "Buy America" legislation.  Now that I see that President Trump will require "Buy America" (see the pipeline case study) our paper offers some insights about the near future.   For details about "Buy America" click here.  

    Our 2015 paper studied public procurement of transit buses.  Such buses are the buses that urbanites (including me on the #8 and #12) ride around cities.   Our puzzle in our paper is that Singapore, China, South Korea, and Japan produce buses that are more fuel efficient than U.S buses and the market price of these buses is 50% lower than the price of U.S buses.  In our paper we argue that cities in the U.S do not import these buses because the cities pay for their bus purchases using Federal subsidies and thus face the "Buy America" strings.   Domestic bus makers know that they are shielded from foreign competition and they raise their prices for buses that may be of lower quality.  Trade frictions have consequences!  
  2. As I read Dr. Krugman's column today, I started to think about "value added" and import tariffs.  Suppose that a pair of sneakers sold in the U.S features the following global supply chain.  The base of the shoe are made in the U.S and then Mexico makes the laces and then the laces and the base are assembled in the U.S to make the final sneaker.    If there is no market for Nike laces then how would a tax authority know how much of the sneaker's value was produced outside of the U.S?

    Some authority would need to guess how much of each U.S sold product was produced outside of the United States and what is the value of this input.  If there is no market for such differentiated products, then I'm puzzled about how a tax authority could value inputs that do not have market prices. In an age of "specificity" where different products have specialized inputs, this problem becomes even harder.

    If intermediate inputs are taxed via the tariff, how many of them return to the U.S to avoid the tariffs?  With such special treatment, will the U.S bring back the jobs?  This is actually an interesting urban economics issue.  Firms offshore because their profits from doing so are higher than if they keep all production in the U.S.  As Trump has said, he wants production back in the U.S and doesn't care where it goes.

    So a producer who sells to U.S consumers who wants to avoid Trump's new taxes can choose any of the 50 states. Which offers the best deal in terms of the highest profit for the firms that return home?  This is the site selection problem. Will states with weak union laws, or low energy prices, or lax environmental regulations succeed?  This depends on what inputs the offshoring firms use in production. Read my 2013 paper with Mansur.


  3. Nathaniel Popper has written a great NY Times piece about the consequences of crowdfunding.  Crowdfunding represents a matching market in which small investors (people like you and me) seek to invest our $ in startups.  The startups make a sales pitch for why they merit your investment and they argue that they can do great things if they could only raise $X million dollars.  Two ideas crossed my mind as I read Popper's piece;

    1.  Crowdfunding pieces increase inequality!   Imagine that the startup companies that seek funding are of two unique types.  They are either "lemon companies" with no chance of success or "constrained companies" who will become the next Uber if only they can raise $6 million dollars.  Each of these companies knows their type but the "naive" investors are unaware which is which.  In this case, the existence of crowdfunding creates a PT Barnum effect as suckers unknowingly invest in the lemons and the lemons run away with their cash.  This makes the lemon investors poorer.  At the same time, other investors invest in the future Uber and they grow rich.  If these investors has passively invested in a diversified mutual fund, they would have held a lower risk , lower return portfolio.

    2.  I recognize that crowdfunding is fun for investors as the investors can feel that they are "changing the world" but the sophisticated investor should know that he doesn't know the true quality of the company he is considering investing in.  This is a classic adverse selection problem.  If it is costly to verify the startup company's true future profitability, then how can this adverse selection problem be addressed? Is this a case where benevolent paternalistic regulation is needed to inhibit investors from investing in startups?  Or do such crowdfunding play a key role in a world where traditional banks loans and bond markets are not possible to access for capital because the startups have no collateral to post?

    In standard adverse selection models, a solution is to have the "sick person" post a large deductible so that they have skin in the game.

    In this case, the solution might be for crowdfunding investors to have the option to convert their equity to a debt contract if they choose to do so.  This "option" would discipline the lemon companies because they would be personally on the hook for extra debt they take on.  This should lead to some of the lemon companies to exit the crowdfunding pool and this would raise the average credit quality of the remaining pool.




  4. Here are the highlights of the discussion from a recent Brookings Panel on infrastructure investment. Harvard's Larry Summers and Ed Glaeser each made some important points but I side with Glaeser.   Dr. Summers appears to view infrastructure as a Keynesian stimulus that is palatable to Republicans.  I'm not convinced by such convenient political economy arguments.   You can decide by watching the video.

    Since infrastructure represents durable capital that will last for decades and since it is stuck in one place, we must think a little bit before we make a multi-billion dollar bet on such stuff. Note that Glaeser emphasizes that "bus good, train bad".  An investment in bus technology offers much greater option value as they can be redeployed on new routes or sold to other jurisdictions as new news arrives. A train's underground tracks represent a sunk investment that a mayor can't sell back to Amazon!  Mayors mostly value such investments because of the public sector union jobs generated to build the thing.  The Mayor of Los Angeles continues to seek out billions of dollars in Federal subsidies for trains.  Why would he disagree with Dr. Glaeser?  In part this is due to the fact that the LA Mayor wants other people (such as Ed Glaeser of Weston, MA) to pay for his city's infrastructure.  Spending other people's money is fun and many mayors spend much of their time lobbying for such subsidies.  I ride the new LA Expo Line to USC each day and I do hope that new real estate arises around its station nodes BUT the people of LA should have paid for this train (not the people of Weston, MA).

    As I argued after Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Sandy,  cities should pay for their own defenses and should pay for their own infrastructure.  Such cities can finance their investments by issuing municipal bonds.  The bond market (by pricing default risk) would determine the interest rate that these cities would borrow at.  If you worry that Flint Michigan will face a higher interest rate, then progressives could use their cumulative resources to subsidize the loan for the Flint tax payers.

    Why do I support local provision of infrastructure?  The main beneficiaries of such infrastructure are the local residents and thus the property owners in these cities gain.  If a city such as New York doesn't want to invest in its airport, then another city such as Newark can gain a competitive advantage by upgrading its airport. Let's have competition between possible transportation hubs.

    Now, I understand that highways cross state borders.  Similar to the Irvine toll roads, higher quality roads could be financed with tolls that vary by time of day.

    So, as I think about different pieces of infrastructure ranging from;  bridges, highways, power plants, flood protection, sewer treatment,   transmission capacity, airports --- why should the Federal government be involved at all in subsidizing these investments?

    Would local leaders make "better" , more efficient public policy decisions if they were investing their own money?  Would public sector unions face greater challenges in extracting rents from city mayors if the city's own taxpayers had to pay the public sector wage premium?

    In my own work on climate change adaptation, I'm interested in what is the optimal durability of our capital stock during a time of risk and volatility?   In the presence of "option value" and learning, do we really want a system that subsidizes multi-billion dollar infrastructure investments?  Perhaps "small is beautiful" and perhaps mayors would purse more incremental steps if they are spending their own money.

    Again, during a time of income inequality --- how will poor cities fund their own projects if federal taxpayers aren't paying for them?   Such cities can issue bonds and people who want to redistribute their wealth to these cities could explicitly contribute to these efforts through purchasing bonds from these cities and accepting an interest rate discount.  I could also imagine a type of negative income tax in which the federal government makes a block grant to poor cities and allows the city to spend the $ in any way that the city selects but offers no subsidies for specific projects. This approach would provide income to the poor cities without distorting their investment incentives.

    UPDATE:  For those who wonder what  I have written on urban infrastructure;  here are some of my relevant papers;


    1. Rhiannon Jerch & Matthew E. Kahn & Shanjun Li, 2016. "Efficient Local Government Service Provision: The Role of Privatization and Public Sector Unions," NBER Working Papers 22088, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Siqi Zheng & Weizeng Sun & Jianfeng Wu & Matthew E. Kahn, 2015. "The Birth of Edge Cities in China: Measuring the Spillover Effects of Industrial Parks," NBER Working Papers 21378, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. My 2013 PNAS paper on Bullet trains in China
    4. Dora L. Costa & Matthew E. Kahn, 2015. "Declining Mortality Inequality within Cities during the Health Transition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(5), pages 564-69, May.
    5. Glaeser, Edward L. & Kahn, Matthew E. & Rappaport, Jordan, 2008. "Why do the poor live in cities The role of public transportation," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 1-24, January.
    6.  Baum-Snow, Nathaniel & Kahn, Matthew E., 2000. "The effects of new public projects to expand urban rail transit," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 241-263, August.
    7. Li, Shanjun & Kahn, Matthew E. & Nickelsburg, Jerry, 2015. "Public transit bus procurement: The role of energy prices, regulation and federal subsidies," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 57-71.
    8. Kahn, Matthew E., 2015. "Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Urban Economics," Strategic Behavior and the Environment, now publishers, vol. 5(1), pages 1-30, June.
    9. Dora L. Costa & Matthew E. Kahn, 2015. "Death and the Media: Asymmetries in Infectious Disease Reporting During the Health Transition," NBER Working Papers 21073, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.








  5. I am listening to Jimi Hendrix and I'm trying to think about predictions I'm willing to make about environmental regulation under President Trump.  Both Don Trump and I both lived in New York City in the early 1970s.  This was a time when Manhattan was dirty, dangerous and disillusioned.   Real estate prices were low.  Don Trump has made huge amounts of $ as Manhattan has become a more livable "green city".  He knows what the capitalization effect is and knows that "location,location, location" mantra of real estate both means a property's proximity to employment and cultural centers and quality of life hubs such as central park. This logic implies that President Trump will not gut regulations that protect the air and water. I actually think he will invest in increasing our nation's climate resilience because he owns so much coastal real estate!  Self interest will nudge him to invest in adaptation!  (sounds familiar?).

    I think that President Trump will allow land owners in various areas to have greater freedom over whether they preserve them or whether they "drill baby drill" for energy. I bet that he will privatize some federal lands and allow more drilling on them.   I do not believe that he will be an active carbon mitigation president.

    If a national leader pursues the local green agenda but does little to tackle climate change, what report card grade does the Sierra Club give him?  A "B" or a "D"?    

    A couple of wild cards.  As we have learned from the case of Flint, Michigan ---  there are poor older cities that have a declining capital stock but do not have the tax revenue base to modernize.  What will the Trump Team do in this case?  The durable capital is creating negative pollution externalities as it slowly rusts and falls apart.   In their past work on durable capital,  Glaeser and Gyourko (2005 JPE) pointed out that home prices fall in such areas and this compensates people for living there but do people have a Rawlsian right to a basic level of clean water?  Who should pay for this?  Does Trump's team believe in Fiscal Federalism or will the poor cities receive nothing from his Administration in terms of spatial transfers?  

    Note that this case bundles environmental justice and spatial redistribution as the rich people in New York City and San Fran and LA would be taxed to pay for better infrastructure in Flint MI.
  6. Why should Michigan taxpayers subsidize the University of Michigan if most of its best graduates move to California and New York?   This thought crosses my mind as I read this piece.  This 2001 NBER paper addressed this issue   but the New Geography of Jobs (see Moretti) accentuates this issue even further. If the opportunities for the highly skilled are on the coasts are becoming better and better, then why is the Midwest paying for the basic training of so many? What part of Becker's "general skills" and investment in human capital argument doesn't hold?   Do Facebook, Apple, Google, Uber, Amazon, or Microsoft have any of their high paying jobs in the Midwest?

    Local taxpayers were more likely to support great local universities when the young talent created by these great schools remains local. But the new talent is footloose and can migrate anywhere. In this age of spatial inequality, the footloose young stars are moving to the coasts and this acts as a tax on the Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan taxpayers' investments.    Gary Becker would argue that workers should pay for their own general skills investments.  Low in-state tuition precludes this.

    UPDATE:  Here is Tim Bartik's 2009 study on this topic.

    Abstract

    This paper provides new information on what proportion of individuals spend their adult work lives in their childhood metropolitan area or state. I also examine how this proportion varies across different demographic groups, and with the size and growth rate of the metropolitan area. I find that the proportion of individuals who spend most of their adulthood in their childhood metropolitan area is surprisingly high. Furthermore, this proportion does not go down as much as one might think for smaller or slower-growing metropolitan areas, or for college-educated persons. These findings imply that state and local investments in children may pay off for the state or local area that makes these investments. A surprisingly large proportion of the individuals who benefit from these childhood investments will remain in the same state or local area as adults, thereby boosting the local economy.

    ANOTHER UPDATE:   I was sent this link .  This piece argues that public universities generate substantial new R&D .  While this is true, I wonder how the state's taxpayers benefit from this. The new startup firms created based on the R&D do not have to locate in the same state where the idea was created.    When I taught at UCLA, the university was very proud of the royalties it collected on intellectual property created by the medical school, engineers and scientists but I don't believe that the California taxpayers "saw a dime" of this $.  The Provost kept it.  Now, maybe there is a crowding out such that Jerry Brown gets a piece of this but then why would the University be so excited to generate new royalties for drugs and other new products if the University can't keep the $?

    My wife had a more thoughtful idea. She argued that a Michigan taxpayer values the option that his child could get a good University of Michigan education and then leave the state. So, if midwest tax payers enjoy holding "lottery tickets" to send a kid to the coast then this would explain the ongoing subsidies. Note there are two lotteries here.  First, a Michigan taxpayer's kid has to be admitted to the University of Michigan.  Second, this kid has to thrive at UM and be offered a Silicon Valley job. If both of these conditions holds, then the taxpayer's bet (i.e having paid her taxes and this $ going to the University) pays off.

  7. CNN has just published a good piece where I am quoted about pollution exposure inequality in China.   My research on this topic can be found here and here and here.    Consider a large number of people who differ with respect to their income levels.  This income can be spent on various consumption and investment goods.  Consumption goods include cell phones, ice cream, sneakers etc.  Investment goods includes stocks, bonds,doctors visits, dentist visits, paying USC's tuition.  These investment goods payoff a future rate of return either by generating future income or by raising your human capital and health capital so that you can be a more productive worker in the future.

    The key point I want to note here is that some of these investment goods are "lumpy".  You can't purchase 1/20th of a car.  You  either buy a car or not and there is some fixed cost for buying it that poorer people can't afford.

    I raise this issues because this "micro-foundation" explains why pollution exposure inequality is rising in China.    Pollution varies even within Beijing and the less polluted parts of the city feature higher home prices.   If you can't afford a car (which people drive on more polluted days to avoid an outdoor commute), if you can't afford vacations away from your polluted city, if you can't afford a home air filter, if you can't afford access to good doctors and better foods,  your health will suffer from the pollution.  For those who can't afford these lumpy self protection strategies, they will be exposed to more pollution and will suffer more from it than richer households.

    In this blog post, I haven't even mentioned inequality across generations as young people cannot afford to buy apartments and older apartment owners are rich.  I haven't mentioned spatial inequality in that those with Hukoo for Shanghai and Beijing face easier admissions standards for leading universities than those with kids who don't have these domestic passports.


  8. To my surprise, leading academic labor economists are now talking about monopsony in labor markets such that firms have market power in setting wages.  Such models offer a micro-foundation for arguing that there is "worker exploitation" and the transfer of income from labor to capital (see Piketty).

    I have several points I want to make;

    1.  At a time when progressives want to sharply raise the minimum wage, such political leaders need economists to supply a theory that justifies this policy.  There are gains to trade here. (yes, a cynical point).

    2.    These monopsony models were not taught in the late 1980s at the University of Chicago.  In the labor economics of Gary Becker and Sherwin Rosen,  workers are bundles of skills.  There is an active market for such skills such that each skill has an implicit price.  For example, if Matthew Kahn is an IQ, muscle, and personality then if I sell each of these attributes bundled into me, different jobs will offer different prices per unit of my attributes.  For example, USC values my IQ and personality but will not pay much per unit of my muscle.  If I work in an Amazon warehouse , they may value muscle much more.

    In the market for skills, if you want to earn more then you need to invest in those attributes that the market values.  If the returns to having a good personality are rising, then you need to become more charming!

    It is true that in my UChicago training that the models allowed for different geographic areas to pay different prices per unit of skill and for different industries to pay different prices per unit of skill. Labor economists recovered these skill prices by running regressions of the form;

    wage in industry j at time t for worker l  =   B_jt*Skills_l

    Where skills_l would include the worker's education, gender, age, ethnicity, language skills and other observables.

    3.  How does "exploitation" enter this framework? It is true that at the University of Chicago, that frictions such as migration costs across cities or across industries tended to be downplayed.  If economic agents are aware that once they move to a city that they will face future migration costs, then they should set up strategies to protect themselves.   Let me give an example.

    Suppose that I work at Starbucks in Seattle and Starbucks knows that I cannot leave the city.  They could "exploit me" by paying me less.  But, basic game theory logic would predict that if I know that Starbucks will treat me like this, I should have a backup plan. I could do Internet work editing people's papers online. I could create a webpage creation business and be self employed.  Basic logic highlights that we do not live in 1865 Manchester.  Workers always have many options to work for and can work for themselves.

    Chicago models also taught us about over-lapping generations. If a boss tries to exploit one set of workers, won't younger workers see this and not join the company as they anticipate that  they will be exploited in the future? Ed Lazear's work on firm culture and the importance of reputation highlights that firms can benefit from NOT exploiting their workers.


    4.  If "Monopsony/Exploitation" is a first order issue , why aren't firms focusing on hiring older workers who face higher migration costs?  My logic is that in an exploitative relationship, the firm can earn more from those workers for whom it has more labor market power.  Same question for minorities such as blacks and women who have been out of the labor force to have kids but now the kids are out of the house.

    5.  If workers anticipate that they could be exploited in low skill jobs, why don't they invest more in human capital to move up the skill distribution to have more employment opportunities? If this claim has any truth to it, then low skill worker "exploitation" could help an economy to grow by encouraging skill formation!

    6.  Go back to the link I provided at the top,  it links to a Steve Jobs ask of Google that there be "non-compete clauses".  Okay so it is possible for highly specialized human capital, that workers do not have that many firms to work for. But, as new startups show, such computing nerds can  always be self employed.  The "victims" have a threat point!  If they are earning "too little" at Apple, they can walk and start their own firm.   The key issue here is barriers to entry for new Silicon Valley firms.  If Apple gains a reputation such that workers know they can't leave Apple if they join it (because they won't be poached through free agency) then Apple will have to pay more up front to attract new workers to compensate them for their lost exit option value.

    So, do you see that thinking through dynamic economics here affects how you approach the monopsony issue?

    7.  As an urban economist, I understand that some cities have few employers but in such small midwest towns rents will be low to compensate people for taking this gamble. If the employer doesn't pay well,then the worker (the person who made the bet on the "one horse town") made the wrong bet but this was the worker's choice and the worker can now sell services on Amazon while sitting in Akron.

    Look up the mechanical turk here!


    So, the point of this blog post is that there has never been a time in the world's history when the capitalists have had less market power over labor.  We live in a competitive economy.  Those who want a raise need to raise their "attribute vector" or figure out a way to limit the competition they face (to raise the skill price vector being paid).










  9. President Obama set in motion a plan that would require that new cars achieve over 50 miles per gallon by the year 2025. The Obama Administration argued that this policy would slow down climate change and would save households $ by reducing their gas expenditures.  If this "free lunch" is true, then why is President Trump likely to oppose this regulation?   You do  not need to be Berry, Levinson or Pakes to answer this question.  A subset of Americans like to drive big cars and this regulation limits the ability to purchase such big new cars.  The people who typically want these cars are "fly over state" people where President Trump is very popular.

    So, suppose that I live in rural Tennessee and I drive 20,000 miles a year in a light truck that achieves 20 MPG.  If I can no longer buy this truck, then I have to substitute to some other vehicle . Yes, the new one will achieve greater fuel economy and will save me money but if the new vehicle is a weak substitute for my light truck, then this regulation has made me worse off.

    President Obama's White House ignored the spatial incidence of his well intentioned regulation.  Now consider  a San Francisco environmentalist who walks and lives near public transit,  if he drives his Prius 5,000 miles a year ;  his life is barely changed by this new regulation.

    The irony here is that President Obama's regulation saves the rural drivers the most $ in "saved gas expenditure" but the rural/suburban drivers oppose this regulation!  A progressive might argue that such drivers are not voting in their self-interest. I would counter and say that these rural voters maximize their utility and value their fossil fuel intensive lifestyle and have revealed a preference for these vehicles that President Obama wouldn't let them buy anymore.

    This political economy of support for environmental regulations between coastal states and inland states needs to be explicitly discussed.  In previous posts, I have argued that the coastal elites should be paying inland states for their political support.  This is a property rights fight.

    To state this blog post with some formal economic logic, we need to estimate consumer preferences for differentiated products to know how much consumer surplus they lose when regulation mandates a truncation of the attributes of new differentiated products.   Of course this regulation offers carbon dioxide reduction benefits (assuming there isn't a big rebound effect) but what are the costs of this regulation?  The Obama team is making certain assumptions about the preference distribution without doing any "structural estimation".    There is an implicit benevolent paternalism in their regulation as they nudge (through CAFE) households to no longer buy a big car.  The Obama Team is saying "a car is a car and thus if we all buy small cars you still have a car and you save gas $".

    Now, the one counter to this is the "Arms Race" that we would all be better off if cars are lighter because of the safety externality.  Whether people in the rural south value this point, is an interesting empirical question.

    Anderson ML, Auffhammer M. Pounds that kill: The external costs of vehicle weight. The Review of Economic Studies. 2014 Apr 1;81(2):535-71.



  10. Next week, Daxuan Zhao and I will release a new economics paper focused on the role that climate skeptics play in determining how people adapt to climate change.  A key point to note is how our paper differs from the usual New York Times narrative that focuses on the concern that climate change skeptics are inhibiting the U.S Congress from enacting carbon taxes.  In our paper, there is NO GOVERNMENT!

    Individuals are consuming goods that contribute to climate change and the world is warming.  So, there is an externality but if there is sufficient demand for adaptation products, firms will offer them.  We introduce climate skeptics. These are people who do not believe that the world is warming  and we study how their presence effects the competitive equilibrium and the quality of life of the rational agents.

    The Impact of Climate Change Skepticism on Adaptation in a Market Economy

    Abstract

    Climate change will increase the risk of temperature extremes. Induced innovation could
    offset some of this threat. This paper explores the demand and supply for climate adaptation
    innovation in a market economy. A new version of the Lucas Critique emerges such that past
    relationships between population death rates and extreme heat are attenuated as endogenous
    innovation takes place. Climate change induces this innovation because the rising temperatures
    increase demand for self protection products and for profit firms respond to these incentives.
    We then augment the model to introduce "climate skeptics". Such skeptics reject the claim that
    the world is warming and thus do not increasingly demand adaptation products. We study how
    the economy's rate of adaptation innovation, cross city migration, real estate pricing and the
    welfare of agents with rational expectations are all affected by the presence of such skeptics.

    So,  this paper melds some ideas from behavioral economics, innovation economics and urban economics to study adaptation.

    Interesting stuff?
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