Forward Guidance: Predicting Near Term Heat Waves and Facilitating Climate Change Adaptation
While we have trouble adapting to the Fed's feints and hints about where its inconsistent policy is going, we will have less trouble adapting to future heat waves. It turns out that Mother Nature is more predictable than Janet Yellen.
Krugman vs. Trump on Trade
It appears that Dr. Krugman will not be the head of the Trump CEA. This creates an opening for Delong, Summers, Kahn, Hubbard, Thoma, Lucas, Mankiw and Wolfers. When I saw the lead for this piece, I thought it was going to be great. Dr.
My San Francisco Chronicle Piece on Water Conservation and Individual Level Price Elasticities of Demand
In my humble opinion, my piece for the Chronicle had more ideas packed in than this NY Times piece arguing that we should measure water use. Of course we should, the interesting economics arises regarding how we use these data to run incentive experiments to encourage conservation.
The Economics of Moving a Public Bus 1 Mile: Unions Raise the Average Cost of Service
Shanjun Li, Rhiannon Jerch and I have released a new NBER Working Paper. This paper is a sequel to our 2015 Journal of Urban Economics paper.
Behavioral Economics and the NY Times Opinion Page
Here are some quotes from Nick Kristoff's NY Times Opinion Piece titled; "Overreacting to Terrorism?"
"The basic problem is this: The human brain evolved so that we systematically misjudge risks and how to respond to them."
The reason seems to be — how do I put this politely? — that we evolved in
An Economist's Comment on Harvard Philosopher Hilary Putnam's Water Thought Experiment
The NY Times has published an impressive obituary for a Harvard Philosopher named Hilary Putnam. As a C+ philosophy student at Hamilton College (but something of a late life intellectual), I sat down to read about some of his best work. He was clearly a very highly cited scholar.
Taming "Inflation" in Academic Economics Using "Big Data" from Recommendation Letters
As the economics job market concludes, I would like to share a comment that I offered on the American Economic Association's Job Openings for Economists survey.
The Costs for Households and Firms of Mitigating Climate Change: Evidence from California
Since 2006, California has enacted new regulations to sharply reduce the state's greenhouse gas emissions. I have argued (see this 2010 interview) that such a "green guinea pig" effort is great as California runs a field experiment to reveal what policies are cost effective.
The Economics of "Dangerous Precedent"
Read today's Room for Debate on Free Trade , why weren't two academic economists asked to debate? Do "think tank" economists offer better debate partners than academic economists? Or, does the NY Times view all workers to be perfect substitutes so any two economists can debate? If we are all pe
Retreat From Free Trade? Will the Economists Rise Up and Complain or Free Ride and Consult?
Last summer, I bought (and read) Dani Rodrik's Economics Rules . I thought it was a great book on a number of levels. Dani anticipated that his readers would be a mixture of economists (both pros and students) and skeptics.
The Economics of Coastal Migration
We originally moved to the coasts because of the productivity gains of access to shipping routes. We have remained on the coasts because of their beauty and climate conditions. All of us move every day and many of us move homes often during our lives.
Dear Future USC Economists
Recruiting the new cohort of Ph.D. economists is now underway. Here is an easy recruiting pitch from a wealthy private university located in paradise (i.e Los Angeles).
Some Ideological Diversity in Today's NY Times Editorial Pages
In today's NY Times, there are two letters to the editor that point out the likely costs of sharply increasing the minimum wage. There is also a vigorous defense of landlords. The "capitalist's voice" is rarely heard in the March 2016 New York Times and that's a shame.
The Political Economy of Economists Blogging About Politics
On my Twitter Feed, I see Jeff Sachs endorsing Sanders over Clinton (see below).
Democratic Presidential Candidates Talk about Climate Change Adaptation and Our Cities
This is an informative Washington Post article. It suggests that a calm national discussion of adapting to climate change is now emerging. The narrow pursuit of self interest (i.e avoiding risk along the coasts and in heat sensitive places) creates a more resilient economy that can take a punch.
A Free Econ 101 Text
As I return to teaching Econ 101 for the first time in 17 years, my USC students will not pay a fortune for Mankiw, Stiglitz, Krugman or any of the other titan's textbook. Instead, we will use a free book written by Timothy Taylor and his colleagues.
Some Optimism in the NY Times
If a martian could only learn about planet earth by reading the NY Times, she might think that we are doomed. Each day, the NY Times reports "bad news". Dora Costa and I have written a paper documenting that this was true about the NY Times 100 years ago and it appears to still be true.
The Environmental Cost of Durable Capital: The Case of Lead Paint
Suppose the housing stock lasts for 10 years and then turns to dust. Would there be much lead paint poisoning in the United States? When I read the EPA's webpage, I saw this quote
"If your home was built before 1978, there is a good chance it has lead-based paint.
An Economic Analysis of House of Cards Season #4
Economists have never played a key role in the British nor the American versions of House of Cards. As Season 4 of HOC unfolds, permit me to make two observations.
1.
Coastal Adaptation to Climate Change: Evidence from Florida
Here is a very useful website. It presents a vision of Southern Florida's coastal future in the face of climate change. The user uses a sliding scale to see how different levels of sea level rise affects the Florida coast.
Our Princeton Press Book Will be Published in May 2016
Siqi Zheng and I are thrilled that Princeton Press will be publishing our book; "Blue Skies Over Beijing: Economic Growth and the Environment in May 2016. Here are four nice blurbs about our work;
"China is an economic miracle and an environmental nightmare.
REPEC Peers Over the Last 10 Years
Peers at Work as of February 2016 . USC Econ is ranked #27 in the USA. Would you have guessed the order of the "Matthews" who are ranked here? I'm not the #1 Matthew. Matthew Jackson is ranked #123.
The Pollution Consequences of Chinese Misallocation of Capital
Hsieh and Klenow published a seminal QJE paper back in 2009. While this blog is not a "top 5" publication (yet), I will extend one of their results as I relate their work to pollution progress in urban China.
Consider the following economy. There is an output called steel.
The Economics of Phasing Out China's State Owned Enterprises
Bloomberg has published a great profile of life in heavy manufacturing towns in China's bleak cold cities close to North Korea. I have not visited Tonghua and I don't plan to but its economics interest me.
My Return to Teaching Econ 101
In the fall of 1993, I joined Columbia University's faculty and was assigned the job few wanted; teaching Principles. In an age before powerpoint, I quickly turned Econ 101 into a growth industry.
