A DIRECT Quote
"The danger is not that the Chinese might actually starve to death in the near future, any more than Germans would have during the 1930s. The risk is that a developed country able to project military power could, like Hitler’s Germany, fall into ecological panic, and take drastic steps to protect its existing standard of living.
In Sudan, drought led to conflict and the displacement of many civilians. How might such a scenario unfold? China is already leasing a tenth of Ukraine’s arable soil, and buying up food whenever global supplies tighten. During the drought of 2010, Chinese panic buying helped bring bread riots and revolution to the Middle East. The Chinese leadership already regards Africa as a long-term source of food. Although many Africans themselves still go hungry, their continent holds about half of the world’s untilled arable land. Like China, the United Arab Emirates and South Korea are interested in Sudan’s fertile regions — and they have been joined by Japan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia in efforts to buy or lease land throughout Africa.
Nations in need of land would likely begin with tactfully negotiated leases or purchases; but under conditions of stress or acute need, such agrarian export zones could become fortified colonies, requiring or attracting violence."
So note that this non-economist is making dozens of implicit assumptions;
1. Property rights over land will not be respected in the future (i.e Chinese invasion and colonization).
2. Food is not storable. This is a crazy assumption. He appears to have a "Mad Max (think of Mel Gibson) vision of the future. Why would the Chinese (or us) fall into this trap? International trade in agricultural produce creates smooth markets with a law of one price adjusted for transport costs.
3. If scarcity is predicted to rise in the future, why won't future prices signal this and why won't this induce innovation (i.e GMO innovation) and substitution to foods that continue to be grown?
4. So, does Prof Snyder oppose international trade in agricultural goods and land leases?
5. The Chinese population growth is slowing and the population is aging. Yes, a richer nation eats more meat but is it obvious that China will demand a large % increase in calories in the year 2050?
6. Why would China make itself so reliant on Africa for agricultural exports? A risk averse nation will see a diverse set of food exporters and international markets provide this.
7. If China develops a reputation for stealing other nation's land, then there could be WW3 but China would suffer greatly in such a conflict. Does Dr. Taylor understand the deterrence concept?
The NY Times fears the rise of the Chinese military and seems to use every opportunity to use scarce inches of its newspaper to rail about potential threats. I respect Dr. Taylor's imagination but he does not discuss how free markets help to diffuse the dangerous scenario that he so eloquently sketches.
UPDATE: At lunch today, I sketched this blog post to my wife and she said that a key issue here is whether the Chinese leadership in the CCP are Malthusians. If they embrace the Malthus view that technological innovation is not possible, then if they demand more calories and are unable to grow them and don't believe that markets will supply them then land grabs become the clear insurance mechanism for them to embrace. If she is right, then this again highlights why economists need to teach the world's leaders how free markets work. Perhaps we need to send 1 million copies of Acemoglu and Linn's 2004 QJE to the Chinese Communist Party Leadership.
Here is their abstract (just substitute the word food for drug);