Saturday, May 03, 2014

The Future of Grapefruit Production

The NY Times reports that Florida grapefruit production has fallen 50% in ten years.  Is this a crisis?  This map shows that Texas and California produce 40% of the nation's grapefruit and this short time series indicates that these two states have increased their production as Florida's production has declined.  The diversification of agricultural production is a nice example of the invisible hand at work.   Has the price of grapefruit increased over time?    For those who believe that prices signal scarcity, here are some data.

Fresh grapefruit
Year1 Retail2 Farm Farm share5
  Price (Cents/lb)4 Percent
1992/93 55 7 14
1993/94 52 8 16
1994/95 53 7 14
1995/96 56 7 13
1996/97 58 7 13
1997/98 57 8 15
1998/99 65 10 17
1999/2000 62 8 14
2000/01 64 7 12
2001/02 65 8 13
2002/03 69 10 15
2003/04 76 7 10
2004/05 102 23 23
2005/06 112 19 17
2006/07 100 14 14
2007/08 97 11 12
2008/09 91 9 11
2009/10 93 12 14
2010/11 97 12 13
2011/12 102 15 15

Keep in mind that  the units are in nominal terms so real prices have declined from 2004 to 2011.

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