The Wisdom of Crowds
You know that you are growing older when the obituary section is your favorite part of the newspaper. Say what you want about the NY Times but it has a very solid obituary section. When I was a 5th grader, we took a class trip to the NY Times and I was shocked that they already had written 80% of many leading living people's obituaries. I recall that they showed us the lead in for some baseball player who I admired.
Why do I tell you this? Well, this obituary impressed me. Mr. Farrell must have been a modest man. He knew that "he didn't know" what people wanted by the way of endings to Hollywood movies. So, rather than taking a gamble and allowing the artists who made the movie to choose their ending; he polled actual movie viewers to see whether they liked an ending and if the focus groups said "no" -- he nudged the movie makers to adjust the movie. In the case of Fatal Attraction, this worked perfectly (in terms of making $). While I had never heard of Mr. Farrell, he embodied a key element that we all need --- humbleness. I am only pessimistic about those people who think they know but truly don't. Those who don't know that they "don't know" will have much more trouble adapting in the face of change.
I can also report that Berkeley in late December is a delightful place to be. No rain this winter, and daily high temperature of around 65. My basketball game is pretty good these days and my son is hitting jump shots from between the free throw line and the top of the key. For a 10 year old kid, that isn't bad! He is now wearing a shark tooth necklace and appears to be pretty cool. He also now has a pair of sunglasses that allow him to make movies as he looks at you (there is a video camera in the sun glasses). We are stimulating the economy.
I am trying to write something for the Journal of Economic Literature but I'm tired of talking about other people's work. I am being nice and only saying nice things about everyone. I'm trying to set an example for the rest of the profession.
Why do I tell you this? Well, this obituary impressed me. Mr. Farrell must have been a modest man. He knew that "he didn't know" what people wanted by the way of endings to Hollywood movies. So, rather than taking a gamble and allowing the artists who made the movie to choose their ending; he polled actual movie viewers to see whether they liked an ending and if the focus groups said "no" -- he nudged the movie makers to adjust the movie. In the case of Fatal Attraction, this worked perfectly (in terms of making $). While I had never heard of Mr. Farrell, he embodied a key element that we all need --- humbleness. I am only pessimistic about those people who think they know but truly don't. Those who don't know that they "don't know" will have much more trouble adapting in the face of change.
I can also report that Berkeley in late December is a delightful place to be. No rain this winter, and daily high temperature of around 65. My basketball game is pretty good these days and my son is hitting jump shots from between the free throw line and the top of the key. For a 10 year old kid, that isn't bad! He is now wearing a shark tooth necklace and appears to be pretty cool. He also now has a pair of sunglasses that allow him to make movies as he looks at you (there is a video camera in the sun glasses). We are stimulating the economy.
I am trying to write something for the Journal of Economic Literature but I'm tired of talking about other people's work. I am being nice and only saying nice things about everyone. I'm trying to set an example for the rest of the profession.
posted by Matthew E. Kahn at 5:08 PM
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