Wednesday, October 05, 2011

Would a Young Nobel Laureate in Economics Be "Well Behaved"?

The new Nobel Laureates in Physics include a 41 year old and a 44 year old. You can read about them here.  Dr. Riess looks about 20 years old in the photo.   Given that the Econ Nobel will be announced next week, the "new news" that 66% of the new physics Nobel laureates are younger than me got me thinking.  Suppose that the Econ Nobel was awarded to a "kid".  Would this young star be transformed into a real diva now that he/she had received the ultimate prize at such an early age?   Who in our profession is humble enough to be able to handle this ultimate honor with grace?    This is my explanation for why I won't win it this year!

In the year 2005, I offered this set of predictions for the Nobel.  Note that I correctly predicted #3, #5, and #8!    So, I'm 50% over the last 6 cycles.  Not bad!!

1. Nobel prize in environmental economics to Weitzman, Nordhaus

2. Nobel prize in trade theory to Bhagwatti and Dixit

3. Nobel prize in President Bush praising to Krugman and David Brooks

4. Nobel prize in behavioral stuff to Richard Thaler

5. Nobel prize in contracts to Hart, Holmstrom, and Oliver Williamson

6. Nobel prize in development economics to Dasgupta and Deaton

7. Nobel prize in finance to Fama

8. Nobel Price in mechanism design to Milgrom, Myerson and Maskin

9. Nobel prize in family economics to Mincer and Pollak

10. Prize in Political Economy to Alesina, Persson and Tabellini

11. Prize in Modern Macro to Barro and Sargent