Buffalo vs. Ed Glaeser?
Buffalo's urban boosters have made the case that their city is thriving.. Here is a quote:
"CNU board chair Victor Dover delivered this audience question to Glaeser after his remarks: “In spite of continued population loss, Buffalo is said to be still the 17th most densely populated city in the United States. Since 2000 the Buffalo MSA had the ninth highest Gross Metropolitan Product per capita growth, the second highest percentage gain in graduate degree attainment, and the second highest percentage increase in property values. So Buffalo somehow is growing wealthier and smarter and more valuable as you say we should, so did you mean Buffalo is too cold and should drop dead just for that?”"
I am sure that Prof. Glaeser was delighted to hear these facts. Glaeser's scholarship provides many important ideas related to both urban growth and urban decline. There is no "iron law" of urban dynamics but attracting and retaining the skilled and having a warm winter are strong correlates of urban growth.
Buffalo's recent declining population (its population has shrunk by 50% between 1950 and the present) doesn't mean that its in a death spiral but its Civic leaders must be honest about the challenges Buffalo faces and to evaluate what might be cost effective investments. One of Glaeser's big points is that it is bad public policy to invest in irreversible, costly placed based capital (such as rail transit systems) when such money could be invested in people (Head Start and other early life interventions as advocated by James Heckman).
It is a fact that people and jobs have been moving away from the Northeast and Midwest for decades. As people move away, their durable homes remain and residential and commercial real estate prices will fall. Consider the average home prices in Buffalo vs. Los Angeles. In Buffalo, it appears that you can buy a nice house for $60,000. This is not the case in Los Angeles.
With such low house prices, there will be some types of households (who despite the cold) and firms who will want to locate there. This is how equilibrium works --- as prices fall this actually helps to jump start the area as it becomes more attractive.
Why has Buffalo enjoyed a resurgence in recent years? My favorite theory (building on Glaeser's past work) is "consumer city". Is Buffalo becoming a safer, greener more exciting place to live and work? If the answer is "yes", then despite cold weather --- we can be more optimistic about Buffalo's medium term future. I would ask the Mayor of Buffalo --- what is your engine of job growth? Do you really believe that SUNY Buffalo can become a Silicon Valley type of magnet for biotech firms? This sounds overly ambitious to me.
"CNU board chair Victor Dover delivered this audience question to Glaeser after his remarks: “In spite of continued population loss, Buffalo is said to be still the 17th most densely populated city in the United States. Since 2000 the Buffalo MSA had the ninth highest Gross Metropolitan Product per capita growth, the second highest percentage gain in graduate degree attainment, and the second highest percentage increase in property values. So Buffalo somehow is growing wealthier and smarter and more valuable as you say we should, so did you mean Buffalo is too cold and should drop dead just for that?”"
I am sure that Prof. Glaeser was delighted to hear these facts. Glaeser's scholarship provides many important ideas related to both urban growth and urban decline. There is no "iron law" of urban dynamics but attracting and retaining the skilled and having a warm winter are strong correlates of urban growth.
Buffalo's recent declining population (its population has shrunk by 50% between 1950 and the present) doesn't mean that its in a death spiral but its Civic leaders must be honest about the challenges Buffalo faces and to evaluate what might be cost effective investments. One of Glaeser's big points is that it is bad public policy to invest in irreversible, costly placed based capital (such as rail transit systems) when such money could be invested in people (Head Start and other early life interventions as advocated by James Heckman).
It is a fact that people and jobs have been moving away from the Northeast and Midwest for decades. As people move away, their durable homes remain and residential and commercial real estate prices will fall. Consider the average home prices in Buffalo vs. Los Angeles. In Buffalo, it appears that you can buy a nice house for $60,000. This is not the case in Los Angeles.
With such low house prices, there will be some types of households (who despite the cold) and firms who will want to locate there. This is how equilibrium works --- as prices fall this actually helps to jump start the area as it becomes more attractive.
Why has Buffalo enjoyed a resurgence in recent years? My favorite theory (building on Glaeser's past work) is "consumer city". Is Buffalo becoming a safer, greener more exciting place to live and work? If the answer is "yes", then despite cold weather --- we can be more optimistic about Buffalo's medium term future. I would ask the Mayor of Buffalo --- what is your engine of job growth? Do you really believe that SUNY Buffalo can become a Silicon Valley type of magnet for biotech firms? This sounds overly ambitious to me.
posted by Matthew Kahn at 9:49 AM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home