Thursday, June 17, 2010

How Will President Obama Get His "Groove" Back?

What can President Obama do to get back on his "A-game"? He can't call the "A-Team" (but he could hire Mr. T for the CEA). He is losing the fight with the BP Oil Well. He has invested heavily in ungrateful allies in Afghanistan. The country's economy appears to be flat right now with everybody delaying investments waiting to see what will happen next but the Fed and the Congress have no "Keynesian Ammunition" left in the gun to nudge us towards growth. The macro economy appears to be floundering and he faces a serious Congressional election this November. No Republican appears to want to work with him on anything.

He can welcome the Lakers to the White House. He can watch Michelle O. plant organic stuff in his big backyard but will these touches help him get the magic back?

We know that a Reagan or a Thatcher would use military action to focus the country and re-establish leadership and the chain of command. For a variety of reasons, this option is not open to our leader.

We are supposed to celebrate his health care plan but I can't say that I understand it. It appears to be a transfer to the poor who did not have access to health insurance and now will have coverage. A fair nation should redistribute to the less fortunate but it also appears that this legislation will have many unintended consequences as it plays out and is actually implemented.

We are supposed to celebrate that he kept us from falling into a Great Depression but this counter-factual logic is not clear. How did the stimulus plan stabilize the economy? How do we really know the causal effect here? We still haven't seen what Ben Bernanke has cooked up for us in 2012 as he focuses on cleaning up the Fed's balance sheets.

I am certainly happy that he is our President and I support his re-election (and certainly against any Republican opponent with the exception of Big Mike Bloomberg).

If he is our president for the next 6.5 years, how can his life improve? What can he accomplish over this time period. If he anticipates divided government, what legislation can he enact? School uniforms? Such "small ball" may impress Dick Morris but I wonder if President Obama is getting the urge to return to the Senate.

So, I don't know the answer to this post's core question. Inside the White House, the Brain Trust must be puzzled by their loss of command over the news cycle. A good speech can only take you so far.

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