Crime and Punishment: The Case of LA Water Rules

This is funny. Make sure that you read the comments. They are better than the entry itself. In a city of 8 million people, LADWP has found 4000 law breakers who are violating the water use rules during the current drought. If there are 1 million homes with lawns and let's assume that 25% of them are breaking the law and watering (and when we walk around Little Holmby we see many of them), then there are 250,000 "criminal waterers" out there to catch. If 4,000 have been caught then the average "water criminal" faces a 4000/250000 = 1.6% chance of being caught and the fine if caught equals $430 so the expected fine from cheating = .016*430 = $6.88. Not a very impressive deterrent!

Given the state's budget deficit, I say we confiscate the home of anyone caught cheating. So if the average home sells for $750,000 and there are 4,000 "criminals", my policy would generate around $3 billion in tax money to help balance the state's deficit!