Wednesday, August 13, 2008

Will Your Coastal City Suffer Greatly from Climate Change in 2070?

How will different cities be affected by climate change? Are you buying real estate in Fargo, North Dakota and selling Houston real estate? As you might have guessed, I'm working on the first question.

From a quick search using google, I see that the OECD Environment Directorate has some guts. Their researchers are forecasting out to the year 2070. Given that I was born in 1966, their time horizon is a little bit longer than mine. I don't feel a strong bequest motive. My son has 1/2 of my mind and I think that I've given him enough capital of various forms.

OECD Data for 2070 . If you click there, here is what you will see.

"Scenario Methodology

The port cities study determines the number of people that would be exposed to extreme water levels assuming no coastal flood protection measures, which can then be related to the economic assets that would be exposed within the city. Exposure therefore refers to the population and assets that are threatened, taking no account of any defences or other adaptation."