Wednesday, May 28, 2008

My 10th Wedding Anniversary is Tomorrow

Academic economists often marry academic economists. Why? Well, I can't answer that but permit me to offer one salient data point. A 1998 Event that you weren't invited to .

As I think back over the 10 years that have flown by, I wondered whether it is rare for a couple to reach this milestone. The quant guy in me turned to the The Marriage Duration Calculator . Its output reveals that given my "observables" the probability that our marriage would last this long is 89%. The bad news is that if we are the average couple with these observables then our probability of still being married 20 years after our wedding date 5/29/1998 is only 59%. What happens in the second decade of marriage? Do men reveal their dark side that lurking behind our clean, kind ways is an angry Sith Lord? I'm looking forward to finding out.

I thank Dora for participating in this ongoing field experiment.

2 comments :

Ironman said...

Cheer up, Matt! Garth Sundem developed the math behind that tool with CDC data, which means it incorporates the odds that one spouse might die before the other. Whether or not you might turn to evil is really more a lifestyle choice that would only marginally affect your results....

Happy anniversary!

Anonymous said...

^^ nice blog!! ^@^

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