Tuesday, December 27, 2005

Predictions for 2006

I was taught that good social science explains and predicts human behavior. I figure that this time of year we bloggers are expected to make some predictions for the next year.

My problem is that I can't claim to have any deep insights into where oil prices, interest rates or home prices will go over the next year.


1. The 2006 AEA meetings in Boston will be cold but will be a lot of fun. Its a shame that the economics bloggers have been too lazy to co-ordinate planning a group meeting. It is possible that there is such a meeting but that I wasn't invited!

2. I see that Tom Sargent is in charge of the 2007 program for the Chicago AEA meetings. I predict that his program will be filled with cambridge "double difference" natural experiments sessions.

3. Congress will gridlock in 2006 as Democrats prepare for the midterm elections and try to argue that the world is ending under Republican rule. I wish I could make a prediction over what signature issue senator Clinton will choose to stake out a leadership position.

4. My guess is that oil prices will be lower a year from now than they are today. It is an empirical question whether the short recent price spike was enough of a wake up call to encourage a serious increase in exploration for new sources of oil and the development of alternatives.

5. Paul Krugman will be named President Bush's Secretary of the Treasury.