Disasters as Policy Catalysts
Hurricane Katrina may lead to some new regulations for FEMA. 9/11 changed more than a few government regulations. Unexpected shocks affect interest group politics.
Who Will Win the 2005 Nobel Prize in Economics?
On October 10th 2005, somebody will win the Nobel Prize in economics. I hope my wife wins it this year. Excluding my immediate family, I'd like to take a look at the possibility set. I apologize if I excluded you from this elite list.
1.
Future Public Health Challenges in New Orleans
Public health researchers are always looking for “natural experiments” to study how environmental quality impacts health. Researchers examined how much hospitalization rates fell by in the vicinity of a dirty steel plant when its unionized workers went on strike.
Governance and the City: New World Bank Evidence
A recent World Bank Study (see World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 3712, September 2005) has the ambitious goal of quantifying which cities around the world are “well run”. A revealed preference test might study whether home prices are high and whether net migration flows are positive.
Even Short Run Gas Demand Curves Slope Down!
The New York Times has been doing some high frequency econometrics to study how Americans have responded to higher gasoline prices. “For three straight weeks, Americans have been buying less gasoline than they did a year ago.
Gas Taxes and Political Economy
Environmental economists have convinced themselves of the benefits of raising gasoline taxes. Politicians seem to be slow to embrace this proposal. Why? New Yorker magazine’s James Surowiecki has a good explanation.
Green Homes and Household Energy Demand
My Tufts colleague Bill Moomaw is pursuing an unusual goal. He wants his total net annual energy consumption for his home to equal zero.
Chicago Crime Dynamics
Below I report a Figure showing how the Murder Count has evolved over the last 20 years in center city Chicago.
Oil Prices and the Greening of Ford Motor Company
In response to rising gasoline prices, Ford Motor Company is greening its fleet. If gas prices stay high, even Dick Chaney may buy a fuel efficient car. But, there is a second social incentive that could encourage people to buy green cars.
Urban Governance when the Poor and Rich live in Center Cities and the Middle Class Suburbanize
We all know that over the last 100 years, people and jobs have suburbanized as transportation costs have declined and household incomes have increased.
Urban Poverty and Transport: The Case of Mumbai, India
I know relatively little about day to day urban live in major cities in developing countries. Thus, I was quite interested to read a new paper by World Bank researchers where they surveyed 5000 people in Mumbai, India concerning transportation patterns and commute times.
Mega City Growth in Brazil
The share of urban population in Brazil increased from 58 to 80 percent between 1970 and 2000. Economic dynamics point to a process of
increased diversification among larger cities, and greater specialization among medium-sized agglomerations.
What's the value-added of think tanks? Should Harvard Move to Washington D.C?
What would be the consequences for idea consumers if there were no think tanks? I see a couple of implications regarding; 1. career paths and risk taking by intellectuals, 2. Intellectual middlemen and the media, 3. co-ordination. Let me explain.
1.
Urban Poverty
Based on year 2000 Census micro data, 12.4% of people have incomes below the poverty line. The poor are concentrated in center cities. 19.9% of people who live in center cities have income below the poverty line while only 7.5% of suburbanites have incomes below the poverty line.
Predicting the Future of New Orleans
In the short run, New Orleans will experience a construction boom.
How Would the Oildrum Achieve Sustainability?
Looking for activist government in your life? Let me quote the PEAKGUY from http://www.theoildrum.com/story/2005/9/14/2045/66128#more“Here's a brief summary of what I have collected that we as peak oilers (Citizens for sustainable living?) are for:
1.
Improving Urban Governance Through a "Day of Shame"
Thomas Friedman of the New York Times has fallen in love with Singapore’s urban government. He must not be close to Michael Fay.
Will Katrina Help Conservatives or Liberals?
An interesting discussion has been taking place between Andrew Gelman and Craig Newmark concerning how Hurricane Katrina will shape future political competition. Neither commentator mentions that this shock will change the federal/local game of “chicken”.
Katrina's "Crowd Out" of Other News Coverage
I’ve noticed recently that the Iraq War is barely making the news. The media is now focused on; 1. Hurricane Katrina’s Aftermath, 2. gas prices , 3. Judge Roberts Confirmation hearings, 4. start of the school year, 5. Start of the football season.
Why are there so Few Economists in Elected Office?
The typical Senator or Representative is a lawyer. “Nearly half the members reviewed were lawyers (44.6 percent). Individuals from the business sector (13.6 percent), public service (9.9 percent) and education (7.4 percent) represented the next largest groups in Congress.
Risk in Urban Life
Contemporary research indicates that life expectancy at birth has increased by about 47 years in the past three centuries, from about 30 years in 1700 to about 77 years today in OECD countries.
Katrina's "Silver Lining"?
In yesterday's New York Times, David Brooks notes that a "natural experiment" is about to unfold. The Urban poor in New Orleans have been expelled from their old life. He seems to be optimistic that their quality of life could improve in the long run relative to their pre-hurricane experience.
The Growing Supply of "Green" Products
An old question asks whether capitalism is a "friend" or "foe" of environmental sustainability? The "foe" proponents point out the scale effects of capitalism. The pursuit of the American Dream leads to more cars and more farmland paving.
Ex-Post Transfers and Ex-Ante Risk Taking
Gary Becker posts on his blog www.becker-posner-blog.com
"However, generous private and public help to victims of terrible disasters, while highly desirable, distort such rational calculations.
Measuring Chernobyl's Long Run Health Impact
The New York Times today reports "Nearly 20 years after the huge accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant in Ukraine, a new scientific report has found that its aftereffects on health and the environment have not proved as dire as scientists had predicted." The report was prepared by a panel of
When Can Cities Finance their Own Local Public Goods? A History Lesson
The horrible New Orleans case study raises a fascinating issue with respect to the financing of local public goods such as flood protection.
One Lesson from New Orleans? More Cars for the Urban Poor
Among urban writers, it is fashionable to hate cars. The vehicle is blamed for causing Global Warming, paving the country side and destroying the walking center city. Permit me to say a couple of nice things about the car. The car provides access.
Should We Invest to Stop Mother Nature or Terrorists? Pre-emption of Low Probability Disasters
“More people than ever are living near hurricane prone coast lines, earthquake fault lines, forest fire prone areas and in flood plains, a trend that has created a landscape of expanding risk with more people, homes and communities in danger’s path.
New Orleans’ Breached Levees: Ex-Ante How Much Should Have Been Invested in the Levees and Whose Money Should Have Paid For It?
As could be expected in the midst of a crisis there is a lot of finger pointing right now. Who is to blame for exacerbating this tragedy? Paul Krugman knows who.
The Future of New Orleans
In the year 2010, what will be New Orleans' population and employment count? What share of the population will be living in poverty? Will this poverty share increase because the middle class and rich will leave and this lowers real estate prices which act as a poverty magnet? An optimist could point
